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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.