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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."